The Issues Surrounding This Week’s ASEAN Summit

The annual ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Foreign Ministers meeting is in full swing this week in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, and thus far the talks have been highly revealing of the major trends and themes in the region. 

The South China Sea Dispute

The main talking point has been the long-standing territorial dispute in the resource-rich South China Sea (or West Philippine Sea, if you prefer) between China and its southern neighbours, which has flared up again in recent weeks. China angered Vietnam by inviting bids for oil exploration in contested waters, while Manila and Beijing are locked in a standoff over a disputed shoal. The Vietnamese government allowed a rare public demonstration to go ahead last Sunday, signaling its increasing anger with the situation, while Philippine president Aquino has reportedly been considering requesting the deployment of US spy planes.

Led by the Philippines, ASEAN had been discussing presenting a united front to China at the talks to persuade it to accept a code of conduct based on a UN law on maritime boundaries. China on the other hand insists the dispute should be kept out of the summit and wants it resolved bilaterally between the rival claimants. ASEAN nations are seeking to increase their bargaining power by joining forces and entangling China in the multilateral institution, while China prefers to maintain its leverage by dealing with them individually.

The prospects for ASEAN consensus and cooperation against China remain weak, however, as its members are divided in their relationships with their large neighbor. While Vietnam and the Philippines have pressed for a harder line, Thailand and Cambodia have resisted strong steps that would embarrass Chinese leaders. Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar remain in China’s orbit as a result of no-strings loans and other economic and military support. Nevertheless with China preparing for a once-in-a-decade leadership transition this autumn, it has little appetite for stirring up international disputes that may interfere with the official choreography.

Renewed US Presence in the Region

The dispute has also received renewed attention from the US, which has called for faster progress to be made on the issue. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Phnom Penh today, as the summit expands to a meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum, and pressed Beijing to accept the code of conduct. US involvement causes further headaches for China, which argues the dispute should only concern those directly involved. China’s Foreign Ministry accused the US on Tuesday of stirring up the issue and “intentionally kidnapping” the relationship between China and ASEAN. The differences between the two powers’ positions on the disputes were made clear when Clinton remarked: “Approaching them strictly bilaterally could be a recipe for confusion and even confrontation.”

Renewed US attention the dispute is part of a number of recent initiatives that constitute its “pivot” towards Asia, as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan wind down. Last month, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced plans to base 60 per cent of US naval forces in the Asia-Pacific by 2020, but the US is keen to stress the economic side of its approach. In her historic visit to Laos this week, Clinton placed renewed focus on the US “Lower Mekong Initiative”, offering support for education, environment, health, and infrastructure in the Indochina region. Washington has already started easing sanctions on fast-reforming Myanmar that could eventually allow US firms to tap its vast resources. And this Friday Clinton will host the largest ever gathering of American businesses in Asia at a conference in Siem Reap.

China-US Rivalry

The US mediation effort has endeared it to once-hostile countries in Southeast Asia and relations are warming with governments in the region. But it has also emboldened the Philippines and Vietnam to push more aggressively to assert their territorial claims, and its flurry of engagement with ASEAN states is another potential source of friction with China. Diplomatic squabbling between the two powers escalated earlier this week after Clinton’s remarks in Mongolia, in which she criticized governments that lock up dissidents and hinder freedom of speech, were seen as a thinly veiled shot across China’s bows. Editorials in Chinese newspapers blasted US “arrogance” in commenting on human rights and democracy in Asia. China and the US have been careful to play down talk of a geostrategic rivalry in the region, welcoming each other’s presence, but the two are well aware they are locked in a battle for influence in one of the world’s fastest-growing and most strategic regions.

Outlook

The South China Sea dispute is unlikely to further escalate, but with renewed US presence in the region, expect the smaller states to seek to further exploit the US-China rivalry for their own gain. The US will face a difficult balancing act of reasserting its presence in the region without unduly antagonizing China. Questions will be asked as to how far the US can sustain a higher level of commitment in the region in the face of mounting budget constraints. China will seek to avoid exacerbating confrontations with its neighbours in order to focus on ensuring a smooth leadership transition.