[twitter style=”horizontal” source=”intlpolitical” float=”left”] [fbshare type=”icon_link”] With “Operation Damascus Volcano” under way, it is clear that opposition forces, armed by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are serious about a transition and are not backing down. They have given up on looking to the external powers that could have helped them months ago before massacres and bombings became part of everyday life. The rebel forces are effectively bringing Syria closer to a transition than the “Friends of Syria” have managed to. The UN Security Council has failed; they cannot even agree on a condemnatory resolution on Syria’s situation, and have left it up to the rebel forces to do the job, albeit violently. As the Syrian National Council’s Ausama Monajed put it, “the international position is now… irrelevant”.
The Security Council had a perfect window of opportunity over the past several months to apply pressure on Moscow and China to concede an orderly transition, but it is now too late. Syria is definitely, as the Red Cross has asserted, in the beginning stages of a civil war. The killing of Assad’s brother-in-law could draw Syria’s Christian community, which has been mostly anti-revolutionary up to this point, into the conflict. Assad, no doubt, will continue to sit back and watch his countrymen tear each other apart.
Assad’s response, or the lack thereof, to the blast that killed three central members of his regime has been unusual. Under such circumstances, any other ruler would have made an immediate appearance to issue a statement showing at least some reaction to the murder of officials so close to him and condemning the attack, but Assad has waited out any such appearance. Assad could do plenty of damage in retaliation, but has yet to respond to the attack with force.
The attack itself has been a source of speculation. Security surrounding the building in which the three officials were in meetings leading up to the attack was “surprisingly low key”. What if the regime was responsible for the attack? What if those three men showed inclinations to defect, and Assad wanted to prevent their insight into the atrocities from being broadcast abroad? There are even rumours that Assad’s brother-in-law had already been poisoned and that the blast was staged to cover up his death.
With the regime being so secretive, we may never know the full story. But either way, one thing is certain: Assad is not flinching. He has proceeded with swearing in his new defence minister, knowing that he has faithful friends in Iran, Hezbollah, Russia and China. He shows no sign of feeling threatened by the words of international leaders, who would perhaps be better off keeping silent if they are not going to extend a hand to help.
The situation on the ground is going to get worse before it gets better. But with the way things are going, it is looking more and more likely that change may come at the hands of the Free Syrian Army and opposition groups, not the international community.
Image: Shaam News Network
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