The recent implementation of Obama’s healthcare law has been aptly omnipresent in the American media sphere. The flawed rollout has seen millions of people lose their insurance coverage, problems with signing up on the website, and political fallout for the president and his party. His poll numbers have dropped precipitously, as have those for the congressional democrats, whose lead over the republicans in polling for the 2014 mid-terms has now been extinguished. The question is, will this turn of events impact the forthcoming elections?
In the immediate term, the answer does appear to be yes. The polls in general are a pretty accurate indicator of what people are thinking, the 2012 elections showed this rather well, i.e. most pointed towards Obama being re-elected and he indeed was. The rapid decrease in popularity for the president and for the democrats, whom were leading republicans popularity wise in the wake of the government shutdown in October, is therefore hardly a good sign. It is also unlikely that if the tide of people losing their health insurance cannot be stemmed, that the popularity of Mr Obama and his Democrat colleagues will improve.
Obama’s approval rating has noticeably fallen in recent weeks. [Gallup]
That said the implications for the president himself are pretty much irrelevant, constitutionally limited to two terms, he is not up for a third election attempt, and thus will perhaps not worry too much about how he is perceived personally. However, the problem is that many of the democrats are up for re-election in the forthcoming mid-terms, and hence are at risk of losing their seats in government, and consequently legislative power for their party. If that does happen, and the Democrats lose control of the Senate, then it would pave the way for the Republicans to pass and repeal bills in accordance with their own agenda, including of course Obamacare.
Incidentally, such an eventuality was already a possibility even before the fallout of the healthcare implementation had fully taken hold, as an article in Policy Mic in early November showed; In seven of the 10 states that the author discussed the Republicans had a 1/2 chance of winning election. It would not be a stretch of the imagination to imply therefore, that the odds may well have increased in their favour in light of the current state of affairs. What’s more, the National Journal recently reported that of the 15 seats that are projected to be the most likely to switch parties, thirteen of them are held by democrats.
The situation really does not look at all good. With declining popularity and many of their seats evidently at risk, the healthcare law appears to have put the democrats on a knife edge. The question I asked at the beginning, would the fallout of this law’s enactment have an impact? Seems to have been answered with a resounding yes. Or so it seems.
Murdock’s comments on rape cost him dearly [Politico]
Stating categorically that this is a cut and dry case is a tad short sighted for a number of reasons. Firstly, it is just under a year until the elections take place, there are a lot of variables, and potential events that could transpire in the next 11 months. In the summer of 2011, Obama was polling poorly, and it was predicted by some that he would not be reelected. Again, we know how that turned out. Secondly, the implementation of the healthcare law is in its infancy, the introduction of the healthcare system in Massachusetts faced extensive problems, so it may just take time for things to work out. Furthermore, now that the administration is claiming that the sign-up website has been greatly improved, the situation may improve and the democrats may get their greatly needed panacea. Finally, the 2012 elections showed that the Republicans needed to change their ultra-conservative image, for they succeeded in alienating many voters, and I find it hard to imagine people voting for a party that has not dropped the ideological positions that punished them heavily last year, thus preventing them from usurping the Democrats from some of their seats.
Nonetheless, one can’t ignore that the healthcare rollout has had a negative impact on the perception of the Democratic party and Obama. Neither can it be denied that the Republicans could present a very real threat to them. But it still does not mean that the 2014 election is a forgone conclusion either. It may be cliched to say the following, but only time will tell wether or not the problems facing the Democrats now are permanent, or simply a bump in the road that they will overcome.
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