The situation in the Eastern Ukraine is creating a concern among Western leaders, especially in central Europe and Baltic states. It is constantly changing. The pro-Russian separatist groups create chaos on streets of Donetsk, Kharkov, Lungar and other smaller towns. The civil society and the local police forces are divided. Separatists groups attacked several police stations in the cities and fought against Ukrainian citizens, terrorising the streets. As the grave situation was escalating, the Ukrainian authorities decided to combat the pro-Russian separatists in the Eastern regions by sending its special forces. However, surprising as it might be, the Ukrainian forces that were sent in to tackle the problem, were defeated in several parts of the region. Kiev’s armed forces have been literally stopped by the separatists and taken hostage.
The situation looks similar to the Crimean crisis that occurred earlier this year. By looking at the actions taken by the separatists, who took over several main governmental institutions, one can observe the same pattern as in the Peninsula. Groups of armed “green men”, terrorise people in the Eastern cities, and block the activities of local authorities. It might seem that this is Putin’s great game in the Eastern sphere, without any military involvement. However, the voice of the Kremlin says that it has nothing to do with the separatists in the Eastern Ukraine.
The leaders of the separatist groups have claimed that they would consider recently ousted Mr Yanukovich as their leader were he to be reinstated.
Also, the European Union will continue using its soft power, by increasing sanctions. As Robert Kagan said, Europe wants to leave aside traditional concept of power, and traditional geopolitics, moving to minimalize the military and follow absolutely the international law. It has been officially stated, that in case of further Russian actions, the sanctions will be increased to a higher level. There were also calls to implement sanctions on Russian energy, which would have a significant impact on the Russian economy. However, some EU member states opposed the idea, such as Hungary, Bulgaria and Cyprus.
The current state of the Ukraine crisis means the region is on the brink of civil war. Image credit: BemPhoto/Flickr © 2014 Some rights reserved.
The Dontetsk region might not become a part of the Russian Federation, as many have thought. It seems that the separatists want to make it an independent region, governed by their leader. In Moscow, President Putin knows that moving his troops into Eastern Ukraine will result in imposing further sanctions over his country, which will have negative consequences on the Russian economy. The first stage of sanctions has already had a significantly negative impact. For example, the stock market and rouble have fallen, and the Russian credit outlook was downgraded. As the study of the Petersen Institute shows, economic sanctions are successful. The economy has already suffered, as emphasised by Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. According to Mr Siluanov, the Ukrainian crisis could result in a 0% increase in GDP in Russia’s near future. Therefore, President Putin will not necessarily decide to go further with his troops due to the economic consequences that may occur.
Last week, an Easter vacation deal was agreed by the United States, Russia, the European Union and Ukraine in Geneva, on immediate steps aimed at stopping the escalation of the violence. After long negotiation talks, diplomats came out with five main points of the agreement. First, is to refrain from violence and to end expressions “of extremism, racism and religious intolerance including anti-Semitism”. Second, call upon disarmament of the illegal groups present in the cities. Third, assure amnesty for protesters that will leave the occupied buildings and other public places. Fourth, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) will play a leading role in the implementation of the agreement. Fifth, they state that the constitutional reform will be inclusive, transparent and accountable. Despite reaching the agreement in Geneva, the separatists groups did not accept the deal.
Despite that, the military confrontation between the West and Russia is unlikely. It must be stressed that, the US will not launch any military action in Ukraine, neither will the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). There is too much at stake, the United States wont risk confrontation with a power that has nuclear capabilities, particularly over a country in which there are no major interests for the Americans. The only reasonable action that the West should take is to strengthen its presence in the Easter flank, before Ukraine is pushed over the edge and into a full-scale civil war.
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this article is completely bullshit.
when you have nazis building up in your back yard and you are russian?
you are not going to wait until they kill you. the last time that happened and you were russian? a second world war started for you my friend.
The article is a resume of the propaganda in the West. It neglects present and historical facts, it doesn’t speak about the people who it actually concern and the powerplay the Americans are playing because of the Budapest Memorandum, which Russia was forces to sign after the implosion of the USSR. For Poland and Germany there is much at stake as well because it’s their ancient homeland from which they were driven. When new frontiers will be drawn by force, it won’t hold back old sentiments and this will mean the end of the E.U. and N.A.T.O.
Besides this it also doesn’t say anything about the non democratic government in Kiev and it’s right wing aggressive friends who created chaos and committed murder in Kiev. It also doesn’t say nothing about the dirty trick of international politics by the West of supporting these groups since 1991 and giving them their support during the Olympic Winter Games, which stands for peace. The only thing that was written about those games in the West was that they were a showcase for Putin.
Image your 100 year old and lived all your life in the eastern part of the Ukraine. You lived through the terrors of two great wars, Stalinist and Nazi pogroms, famine… You would have lived in three or four different countries. And presently, one hundred years after the start of WOI all this will start over again? Please remember that when the SU existed, this was the most peaceful period in Europe and if the USA never were involved in WOI, WOII never would have taken place.
Russia is since the Congress of Vienna the peacekeeper in Europe. England and the France became rapidly the aggressors in Europe again what resulted in the Crimean War and the treaty of Paris what caused all troubles on the Balkan, resulting in WOI.