This autumn, millions of Americans will descend upon polling stations to elect their federal representatives in the Houses of Congress. The Senate will see one third of its members vie to keep their seat, facing a challenger with an equally hungry fervor. In the House of Representatives, all 435 members must contend with the voting public. At the same time, they face what appears to be a perpetually partisan and intractable legislature, with an approval rating hanging dangerously close to single digits. So what could the results of the midterms be, with a distrust and distain clearly focused on both the major parties?
For the Republicans, they are still smarting from their loss in 2012, what could have been theirs to win, with a shaky economy and rising debt. Unfortunately, a number of key factors compromised their election chances, factors that continue to be of detriment to them. A recent article in The Washington Post provided an excellent reminder of this; the claims of voter fraud, and accusations of certain population groups as moochers all contribute to poison their image. Republican characterisation as being a group of old white men isn’t a great selling point either, nor are the homophobic elements within their ranks. That the US population is becoming increasingly socially liberal will not serve to help their cause either.
This grassroots movement, born in 2009 shortly after Obama’s inauguration as president, formed as a response to what it perceived as excessive taxation, government intervention, and lax attitudes to border security. The Tea Party represents a danger to the unity of the Republican Party, something that an MSNBC report discussed very recently; where it remarked on how the established GOP and members of the Tea Party are at perpetual loggerheads with each other. It doesn’t help either that this particular element often shares an unfortunate symbiosis with the aforementioned image problem. Comments by two of their sponsored contenders, Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock , are a key case in point.
However, the Republican’s problems are not quite as beneficial to the Democrats as one would suppose. Whilst they are not burdened by disunity like their counterparts on the other side of the isle, they too have problems, although theirs are perhaps more external than internal. The most notable is their poll numbers. In the immediate aftermath of the government shutdown last October, the Democrats were polling well above the Republicans, and the latter was forced to bear the brunt of the blame for what happened. Since the disastrous rollout of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), more widely known as Obamacare, Democrats have had to witness their fortunes reverse. However, a recent aggregation of polls has put Democrats ahead by two points in a “generic congressional vote”, which at first glance appears promising.
US Midterm Elections. Image courtesy of DonkeyHotey © 2011, some rights reserved.
However, that does not mean they will win the House or retain The Senate. Overall popular vote doesn’t necessarily dictate who the victor of an election will be. The 2000 General Election between George Bush and Al Gore is a prime example of this, as is the 2012 Congressional Elections, where the Democrats actually received more votes, yet were unable to win majority of the House of Representatives. To put it bluntly, their mere two-point advantage will be of little help to Democrats. To get an idea of what the prospect are for both parties, we need to examine some of the individual races and what the projections are for both chambers.
The House of Representatives looks to be a foregone conclusion in favour of the Republicans. Retaking the House in 2010, they have maintained majority hold for the past four years. Throughout this period, they have posed a serious challenge for the Obama Administration’s agenda. This has included 54 attempts to repeal Obamacare as of March 2014, a bill to block his authority regarding immigration, and a bill to block proposed rules to limit carbon emissions.
Current estimates show that the Republicans have 215 seats that are either guaranteed or likely GOP, a mere 3 seats from a majority. The Democrats, conversely, have 178 seats, nowhere near what they would need to take the House back. Even if they hold control of the Senate, the status quo of the legislature will almost certainly remain, posing another problem.
Currently, in the Senate, the Democrats hold 53 seats, and they caucus with two independents for the purposes of voting. The Republicans hold 45 seats. The current estimates for the Senate are more forgiving to the Democrats than the House. However, this isn’t saying much. Polling by Real Clear Politics is currently predicting, disregarding the toss-up seats to be decided, that Republicans are one seat ahead with 46 that will either be safe, likely win, or not up for election. When the seats that could go either way are counted, Republicans lead in six races out of nine according to the most recent data. If the results pan out as they are estimated now, the Republicans will seize control of the Senate with a slight majority of 4 seats.
This will of course mean that they have full control of the legislature, leaving the President rather isolated, and his ability to preside over the passing of legislation amenable to his ideas, curtailed. This probably will not mean much of a change for him. U.S. politics appears to have pretty much ground to a halt in that regard anyway. However, a Republican hold on both the House and Senate will make it considerably easier to pursue their legislative agenda. The Senate therefore is a safeguard against potential laws that Obama finds disagreement on. By current estimates, this is a reality the U.S. will most likely have to face.
Nonetheless, his party losing the Senate and more seats in the House will be a great disappointment, especially as it is nearing the end of his second term as President. The politician who came to office on an enormous national and international high, taking massive majorities in Congress faces ending his tenure with an approval rating that will likely be lower than it is now, and his party a minority in the legislature.
Whilst there cannot be certainty as to the results just yet, it does appear that the Democrats are at a disadvantage at this point. The polls overall may well favour them, barely. But the individual campaigns, point to a Republican takeover in the upcoming elections. Whatever happens, it will show that there remains a sharp divide between both sides of the political spectrum, something unlikely to change any time soon.
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