With over 96% of votes counted, the result of yesterday’s Dutch election sees Mark Rutte, leader of the right-wing Liberals (VVD), set to stay as Prime Minister. But the closely fought election left his party with only two more seats than a newly resurgent Labour party (the PvdA), a result which has removed doubts about Dutch commitment to Europe, but also shaken commitment to German-led austerity measures.
Only weeks ago, PvdA was trailing in the polls behind the former moaist Socialist party, but following stellar performances by Labour leader Diederik Samsom in recent TV debates, PvdA won 39 seats in the 105 seat Dutch parliament.
Mr. Rutte will almost certainly be forced to form a coalition with Labour over the next week. His former coalition partner, the extreme right anti-Islam Freedom Party, has been decimated in the polls, returning only 15 of its former 24 parliamentarians. The Freedom Party (PVV), led by extremist firebrand Geert Wilders, supplied no ministers to the previous coalition but was crucial in supporting Mr. Rutte’s government. Something which became painfully clear when an election was triggered following the PVV’s messy withdrawal from the coalition.
But what has been hailed as a triumphant return to the centre is nothing of the sort. The Financial Times notes how both victors in yesterday’s election have drifted far from the central ground they held in the 1990s. A story ignored in the aftermath of the results is the centrist Social-Liberal D66 party, which increased its share of the vote last night. Along with Labour, it enthusiastically supports the EU but opposes the austerity of Angela Merkel and Mr. Rutte’s last government.
Whilst VVD increased its share of the vote as much as Labour, the ideological spread in the new parliament shows a greater proportion of voters are against the relentless austerity that both Labour and D66 have opposed in the campaign.
So whilst European commentators have celebrated a good day for the eurocrsis, with pro-European parties taking overwhelming shares of the vote, this does not mean business as usual. A governing coalition headed by VVD will find little support to continue its austerity policies from a Labour party revitalized by campaigning against these very measures.
Dutch English language media has suggested amongst others that D66 may be included in the new coalition to “oil the wheels” between these two opposed parties. But what use this will be remains to be seen.
Political commentator Frits Wester said that “Labour has always supported the VVD on European issues,” but this is no longer the case. Mark Rutte will be desperate to show he can build a working coalition following the collapse of his first government, which lasted only 18 months. So it is likely that current Dutch cooperation on Greece, and plans for a new banking union will require some renegotiation with a new Dutch government. Angela Merkel cannot count on the unquestioning support of Mr. Rutte, especially with Labour leader Diederik Samsom standing behind his shoulder, showing support for French President François Hollande’s alternative, growth based agenda.
The real election result will therefore only emerge next week, as coalition partners are agreed and a mutual agenda is hashed out.
Image: Reuters
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