Venezuela’s elections are just a few days ahead and right now the two main contenders are competing in close race, according to the main polls in the country.
As expected, both contenders Hugo Chavez, 53, going after a third six year period, and Henrique Capriles, 40, actual governor of Miranda State, claim they’ll be victorious, and both leaders have polling data to prove their point.
Several polls give Chavez an apparently strong double digit lead, while some others give Capriles a narrow lead. But what analysts have been explaining since all these numbers came around, make for interesting reading: Polls giving Chavez the big lead also show a huge percent of people apparently undecided –not so common in polarized scenarios like Venezuela– which is in all cases bigger than the gap between both contenders. On the other side, polls giving a narrow lead to any of the contenders have a tendency to reduce that percent of the undecided. What is the issue here?
Apparently, among those polls that have consequently come close to the actual results in the past, the ones showing a big gap between the contenders and a huge number of undecided, are not to be trusted until one makes some adjustments. Indeed, there are fewer undecided voters than there appears to be. Polls showing a small gap were made as simulations, where participants fill a voting card out of sight and deposit it in a paper bag full of other voting cards. This seemed to increase the confidence in the participant so their opinion was going to be kept safe, which in the end led to that little number of undecided voters.
But maybe, the most significant side of this exercise is that Chavez seems to be stuck in all polls no matter the gap, with support near but not quite at 50 percent. Has he reached his peak? Well, the one closing the gap is Capriles.
Does it mean that all the undecided are voting Capriles? Of course not all of them, but polls show the majority would indeed vote him. Fear-factor anyone? Not rare.
So this is not as simple as it may seem for Hugo Chavez. It is actually the first time he’s facing a real threat after 14 years of presidency. He may dismiss his much younger challenger, but for the very first time he’s not setting the agenda.
Chavez holds the power and, of course, the money; Capriles holds the emotion, the youth, and unexpectedly, or not so much, this Sunday Venezuela may finally see a change. Change is good isn’t it?
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