Italian politics in 2013: will it look like 1994?

Italian politics has always been a puzzle for foreign observers. For that matter, even Italian experts often have a hard time anticipating political developments in the country. The elections that are due for Spring 2013 are no exception. This time, anticipating the results coming out from the polls may be even harder than it usually is. Political uncertainty has never been higher than it is now. Political disaffection towards parties got to this level only once before: after 1992. In those years, major political scandals were exposed by the judiciary system. Together with the international speculation against the country, this development led the parties that had been in power for almost 45 years to disintegrate and to leave the power to a technocratic government. The parties that emerged at the elections in 1994 have been in power since then. It is worth asking ourselves if the elections that are due for Spring 2013 will have the same consequences as the 1994 elections: that is, the disintegration of an entire political system and the birth of a new one.

Recent polls released in Italy last week showed that the disaffection of voters towards political parties just reached new historical heights. Experts disagree on the reasons for this data. Some say it is because of the broader wave of disaffection that led to the creation of movements such as the Indignados in Spain and Occupy Wall Street in the US. From such a perspective, the Italian political disaffection is merely the result of a development that hit other Western countries too. Other experts prefer to link this historical high to the scandals that have been recently exposed by the media. People are now growing aware that corruption and fraud are widespread practices at every level and in most of the Italian parties. Worldwide indignation and recent scandals are therefore the two main reasons credited by experts to explain the fall of trust of Italians in their traditional parties.

I believe both these two arguments explain only part of the problem. To understand today’s political disaffection it is necessary to look back to 1992, a historical moment for Italian democracy. Back then, the world was also shaken by international waves – the vanishing of the communist ideology, for a start. It was also a moment of crisis for the European Monetary Union: today’s Eurozone was shattered by international speculation. Italy, like a few other European countries, was under attack by market speculation and was eventually forced to suspend membership of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. While these international developments were taking place, a huge system of corruption throughout Italian parties was unveiled first by the judicial system and then by the media. Giuliano Amato was called to preside over a government of technocrats between 1992 and 1994 to restore the credibility of the political class and save the country from international speculation.

All this looks terribly familiar now. Italy was hit very hard by international speculation in 2011, a moment when corruption scandals hit all the parties exposing once again a system of widespread corruption. As a result of these developments, in December 2011 Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi had to resign and left the power to a technocratic government led by Mario Monti. Mr. Monti accomplished some important objectives, restoring Italy’s credibility abroad, imposing very hard cuts, and pushing forward new taxes to adjust the country’s economic budget.  These are long-lasting reforms that have been carried out in less than one year. Although many leading business, banking and academic leaders have urged Mr. Monti to run for a second term, he promised that he will step down as Prime Minister in Spring 2013, when elections are due. Given all the similarities with that historical period, it is therefore of the utmost interest to look back at the results that came out of the polls in 1994 elections.

Those elections meant the end of the traditional communist and Christian-democrat parties; and the rise of the parties that have been leading Italian politics for almost twenty years now. These were brand new: Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (now Popolo delle Liberta) and the once communist Partito dei Democratici di Sinistra (now Partito Democratico). The two forces were based on two different ideals that promised potentially revolutionary effects for the Italian society: Forza Italia promised a liberal revolution, the progressive alliance promised a new and more progressive welfare system for the people. Both these ideals have been betrayed. Mr. Berlusconi won three elections since 1994, always promising a liberal revolution based on less tax and more freedom for small enterprises. According to the data, Italy today is more corrupt and less economically competitive than it was in 1994; it is overwhelmed by bureaucracy and it is among the countries with the highest fiscal pressure in the entire world. It is beyond any doubt that Mr. Berlusconi’s liberal revolution utterly failed. The left, always led by the same establishment, went into government twice (from 2006 to 2000 and from 2006 to 2008) and appeared unable to lead, fragmented, inconclusive and shortsighted. It surely failed to promote a new model of welfare, as well as any kind of lasting reform. Other parties that went into government as a result of the new electoral cycle that began in 1994, such as the xenophobic and secessionist Northern League, also failed to accomplish their objectives and to push through the reforms they had long promised to their voters. As in 1992, these parties have been recently and repeatedly hit by severe corruption scandals. Only in the last month, more than 100 politicians from all the three parties have been investigated for fraud. These developments suggest that, as it happened in 1994, traditional parties will find it hard to win back voter confidence.

Experts agree that new forces are contributing to push traditional parties towards disintegration, or at least towards a radical transformation. Italian comedian Beppe Grillo, for instance, is shaking up the country with his Movimento 5 Stelle. Four months ago, this political movement beat traditional parties in the elections of the municipality of Parma. Polls show that the Movimento 5 Stelle could get a surprisingly high percentage of votes in the next political elections, exactly as happened to the Northern League in 1994. Even more than Beppe Grillo, the person who is likely to shake the system is the mayor of Florence, Matteo Renzi, whose stand in the primary elections for the prime ministerial candidate of the centre left is proving a tough challenge to the party’s establishment. Renzi, who says he wants to trash the old political class, could get votes from people who never voted for the left because of his youthful charisma, communication skills and his political program, which is still quite hazy. The manner in which the ageing political establishment is struggling to paint him as an inexperienced arrogant upstart suggests that he does in fact represent a threat to the traditional organization of his party.

History never repeats itself in the exact same manner; but it now appears clear that Spring 2013 elections present similar patterns to those of 1994. Very few people doubt that these elections are likely to set a significant discontinuity with the politics that characterized the country during the last decade, but maybe in the end everything will stay the same. Maybe the right wing will not disintegrate and the left wing establishment will defeat any challenge for internal reform. And maybe new parties, such as the  Movimento 5 Stelle, will not have any relevant role to play in the parliament. Looking at Italian politics right now, however, it is hard to see how 2013 could differ from 1994.