‘The Queen is dead, long live the King…again?’ – Julia Gillard’s shock resignation

As night drew across the Australian capital of Canberra and its citizens prepared for rest, the dust settled on what may go down in history as the most brutal and intense battle for a political party’s leadership within the modern era. After a siege of almost three years to the day, with ground won and lost by both competitors, a clear victor emerged bloodied but triumphant to lay claim to the hotly contested position of leader of the Australian Labor Party and, most crucially, presiding Prime Minister of the nation. On Wednesday 26^th of June, after four rounds of gladiatorial-esque combat within the space of three years, former Prime Minister and Labor party leader Kevin Rudd finally defeated Australia’s incumbent and first female Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, in a ‘winner takes all’ party leadership ballot to supposedly end their seemingly endless duel for top office.

Though the once ‘comrades-in-arms’ have openly challenged one another on a number of occasions, with Gillard taking control of the party’s reigns from Rudd in 2010 and resisting a Rudd fight-back in 2012, the stakes of this ballot were raised unprecedentedly to include resignation from politics by the defeated opponent. Though ultimately Rudd was successful in convincing  57 of the 102 elected Labor representatives voting within the party caucus to select him to lead the party in the upcoming election; a Rudd victory was by no means a foregone conclusion despite the former PM’s consistent popularity with the Australian public. In a moment of almost Hollywood styled drama, party heavyweight  Bill Shorten, the current Minister for Employment, called a snap press conference and publically switched allegiance from Gillard to Rudd a mere 30 minutes before the ballot took place. This decision by Gillard’s former cabinet minister to favour a new ‘boss’ sent out a strong but nervous message to the rest of the caucus’s voting members and arguably sealed the result of the party leadership election then and there. In the wake of Rudd’s sudden victory and the unique election conditions, Prime Minister Gillard, though winning the previous three leadership challenges, bowed to the inevitable and contacted Australia’s Governor General, Quentin Bryce, to request Rudd be commissioned as Prime Minister. However only time will tell if Gillard is true to the second part of her pre-caucus words and shall not stand in the upcoming general election to be held in September.

Although the resignation of PM Gillard will come largely as a shock to the international community, with Gillard gaining  global notoriety following her infamous ‘misogynist speech’ directed at opposition leader Tony Abbott, internal rumblings for a leadership change have been on the cards for a while. Only three months prior to this latest party caucus, Gillard had already called and won a surprisingly unopposed  leadership ballot caused by the demands of former senior cabinet minister, Simon Crean, for Rudd to be re-elected Prime Minister. Despite Rudd’s bizarre decision to pull out of the election race a mind boggling 10 minutes before the ballot, a general lack of public support for Gillard and a widespread belief that Labor shall suffer a heavy defeat in the upcoming election resulted in the possibility of a leader change remaining Labor’s political backdrop. By late June a petition circulated by Rudd’s party faithful, calling for a caucus and requiring only 35 elected Labor representative signatures to initiate proceedings, brought a leadership race back to Gillard’s table. Left with an increasingly mutinous cabinet and a record slump in the polls, Gillard upped the stakes and rolled what would turn out to be her last political dice.

However before Rudd can relax and fly with confidence his flag once more above the houses of Federal Parliament, there are a number of hurdles which the ‘new’ Labor leader has to, well, hurdle. The foremost road block which has the capacity to derail Rudd is a possible vote of no confidence within Parliament. If Abbott, leader of the Liberal-National Coalition (opposition party), feels the Labor-Green-Independents coalition is as divided as Labor’s splintered leadership implies; then the former government minister could be tempted to publicly test the mettle of the re-shuffling administration. Considering the mixed feelings many of the independent MPs have toward the return of the former PM to power, there is a strong possibility a vote of no confidence could pass and result in an earlier than expected general election. On the other hand, a snap election on the back of such a publicly captivating Labor leadership restructuring yields potentially unpredictable results; not necessarily in favour of the Liberal-National bid for government. It seems more likely that rather than spin the political roulette wheel, Abbott will bide his time, assess the making of Rudd as a returning PM and launch a general election assault on an opponent who has been properly weighed and measured. After all, Abbott’s satisfaction rating as a leader with the Australian public rides at a modest 33% in support. Not exactly an over whelming public gesture for the Liberal-National party to build upon.

Aside from a potential vote of no confidence, Rudd also has to overcome vehement opposition from within his own party. Cabinet ministers Wayne Swann and Stephen Conroy have already openly stated that they would not serve under a Rudd lead administration, citing Rudd’s renowned ‘autocratic’ style of rule as detrimental to the success of the party and any future government. Furthermore the ever popular Rudd has the daunting task of overturning a 14 point deficit in the Australian polls as of June 24^th; with Abbott’s Liberal-National Coalition holding a 57 to 47 % lead over Labor in the polls, in addition to control of the most populated four of Australia’s six state level governments. With neither time nor the Australian public favouring the Labor Party, defeat at the next election seem all but set; with the leadership exchange of Rudd for Gillard supposedly engineered more to quell a foreseeable changing tide rather than to emulate King Cnut and attempt to halt it.

On reflection, Rudd’s surprise return to office seem an undeserving way for a Prime Minister of Gillard’s calibre to end a pioneering political career with a mere 8 weeks or so before a defining election. Seemingly abandoned by the very voters who gave her election success in 2010, Gillard was able, despite this, to succeed where many other world leaders of her era failed and kept unemployment in her nation low whilst maintaining economic growth in a worldwide recession. A legacy she leaves for her country in its favour, alongside a revitalising A$9.8 billion federal investment in the nation’s primary and secondary education systems and a new precedent of electing female Prime Ministers.