Calls for independence gain momentum in Europe

Early in 2012, British Prime Minister David Cameron surprised everybody by agreeing to hold a referendum for Scottish independence before the end of his mandate. A few weeks ago, Alexander Salmond, the leader of the Scottish National Party and a long-standing Prime Minister of the nation, confirmed that the vote will take place in 2014. The referendum will mark an historic moment for the country: it will be the first time Scottish voters will be presented with the possibility of breaking the political union between England and Scotland that dates back to the 18^th century. The ‘Yes Scotland’ campaign has already started, based on the work of volunteers and supporters organizing events all around the country. Although the outcome of the polls remains uncertain, Scottish flags are being waved by thousands of people from Edinburgh to Glasgow in what seems to be an unprecedented moment of both enthusiasm and expectation.

A similar feeling can be found in the streets of Barcelona. On September 11, 2012, the city was invaded by almost 2 million people campaigning for the independence of Catalonia, in the largest demonstration ever to take place in the country. Artur Mas, the region’s powerful leader, announced last week that he will call a snap regional election on November 25th. He also confirmed that his party’s position will be that of calling for a referendum on Catalonia’s independence, even against the will of the central government in Madrid.

Pro-independence demonstrations were held in other places too. A few weeks after the manifestation in Barcelona, people discussed the possibility of independence in Gilbraltar and South Tyrol. A small mass even rallied in the heart of Venice, calling for an urgent referendum to be held on the issue. Make no mistake, many people were surely inspired by Scotland’s ambition to become a state and by Catalonia’s massive demonstration. Meanwhile, the Flemish independence cause scored a very important victory in Antwerp, where on the 14^th of October the New Flemish Alliance, who wants to split Flanders from French-speaking Wallonia, won control of the city in local elections. The spread of independence-seeking could continue through a powerful domino effect. The Basque region, Sardinia, Corsica; maybe even Brittany or Bavaria could soon follow

All these places are instances of stateless nations, or regions with a very strong regional identity. Minority nationalism and pro-independence movements have always been very prominent issues in these places, but never to the extent that they are now. Polls show a huge support for independence not only in places where there has always been a sympathy for secession, but even in those where the idea never really appealed to anybody. Furthermore – and this is particularly true in Scotland and Catalonia – for the first time in recent history people actually think that independence could be more than a fantasy. For these regions independence never looked closer than it does now.

Some people suggest that the surge in voting for nationalist causes is in large part due to the acute economic instability at the moment. The logic that follows is that when, and if, the economic crisis ends, independence-seeking movements will quickly vanish. The enduring economic crisis, however, is providing a spur to separatist movements even in some of the most prosperous regions of Europe. Furthermore, a desire for independence does not easily go away once it has started. It could be a misjudgment to think that all these movements will eventually vanish. Take the case of Quebec in Canada, where pro-independence movements grew during the 1970s in what has been defined as “the Silent Revolution of Quebec”. The movements have been subsequently defeated in the independence-referendum of 1980 and again in that of 1995. Both times, people assumed that Quebec secession was destined to disappear from the political scene. But it did not, and now talks over a third referendum are being held again. The lesson from Canada is that once a powerful pro-independence movement is started, it becomes very hard to push it back. Calls for independence may remain one of the main political stories in Europe over the next decade, or even more.