Election 2016: Predictions for the primaries

Political campaigning never seems to end in the United States.

A mere four months after the Republican party thrashed the Democrats in the 2014 mid-terms, the first candidate for the Republican nomination announced he was running. The man in question was Ted Cruz. The Canadian-Born, Tea-Party backed Senator from Texas has made his name for himself, proving to be a source of annoyance for the Republican establishment. His 21-hour speech against Obamacare is perhaps the most (in)famous instance.

Over the past few months, Cruz has been joined by over a dozen other candidates. Among them Jeb Bush, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Ben Carson, Lindsey Graham, Scott Walker, and just last month, Donald Trump. The announcement on Tuesday of Ohio Governor John Kaisch has added the 16th candidate to the Republican pool. Voters will not be starved for choice by any measure.

By contrast, the Democrats have only two people of note so far. Normally independent, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and former Secretary of State and First Lady Hilary Clinton. Between these two, Clinton is the only viable candidate for her party’s nomination. Crucially, she has the funding advantage, that Sanders to date, cannot match. Her campaign has raised over $63 million as of the 30th June from all forms of contributions. Sanders by contrast has raised just shy of $15 million dollars. None of the donations to his campaign, however, have come from super pacs. Essentially, Mrs Clinton has the full financial backing of the Democrat mainstream, and in turn the political support from the party’s voter base; A poll conducted by the Wall Street Journal and NBC news last month, indicated that 75% of Democratic primary voters saw her as their choice for presidential nominee. Bernie Sanders, whilst ranked second amongst the polled demographic achieved only 15%.

One poll may appear to be an outlier, but a dozen others compiled by the Huffington Post portray a very similar story, albeit with slightly fewer percentage points for Mrs Clinton and slightly more for Mr Sanders. Coupled with the financial and political support, her surname also carries a significant gravitas amongst the US populace. Recent surveys have ranked her husband, former President Bill Clinton among the top ten greatest presidents in history. However, whether she can capitalise on the popularity of her husband remains to be seen, and there is no guarantee that she can. All things considered though, it seems reasonably likely that she will score a victory in most of the primaries, thereby securing her place as the democratic front runner.

Nonetheless, it would be a mistake to see this as purely advantageous. On the contrary, Mrs Clinton’s status as the only person in the Democratic corner with a realistic presidential ambition is something that her party should take note of. In the event that her popularity declines precipitously amongst democrat voters, there are few people if any, who could substitute her effectively. Fundamentally, though, is the question of what happens if she loses support amongst the general public overall. Mrs Clinton is no stranger to waging tough political battles over the years, she had the strength to forgive her husband for his infidelities, standing beside him during his impeachment for perjury. More recently, she has faced investigation by a House Select Committee over the Obama Administration’s response to the Benghazi Consulate Attack in September 2012. Even further scrutiny was directed towards her after it emerged she had used a private email server during her time as secretary of state, rather than one issued by the State Department.

Such a revelation may do little to affect Mrs Clinton’s chances, but regardless as to whether they have hurt her politically or not, her polling amongst Americans overall is a deeply troubling sign for her campaign. In the key swing states of Colorado, Virginia, and Iowa, Mrs Clinton has fallen Behind Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker by margins of over 6% in some cases. Whilst this should not be seen as a final result; the election is not for another 16 months, it should be taken as a sign that a Hilary Clinton victory is not assured by any measure. She is vulnerable, and if she hopes to win, she will need to drastically improve her standing with Americans, lest she fail facing the Republican contender. The challenger who runs against her though remains to be seen. Nonetheless, the aforementioned wide backing she receives from the party and voters of her own party, whilst being a liability, also has its advantages. It highlights the core strength of the Democratic party; unity.

The Republicans, conversely, are fractured. That so many of their party have announced their candidacy for president is perhaps the most glaring illustration, the level of support for them evidences this further. A number of opinion polls spread the preferences much more evenly than for Mrs Clinton and Mr Sanders. In a surprising turnout, Donald Trump, having recently made statements that have drawn criticisms from all sides of the political spectrum, has a commanding lead over the remainder of the contenders. Scoring almost double in the polls compared to the next best ranked Candidate, former Florida governor Jeb Bush.

Whether Mr Trump will actually win the nomination appears unlikely. However, with the first Republican presidential debate only two weeks away, his lead shows no sign of reversing. It is doubtful his debating skills will be particularly refined, his recent comments about John McCain’s military service, and immigrants being ‘drug dealers’ and ‘rapists’ had no adverse effects on his standing. So it is therefore doubtful that a poor debate performance will change the situation either. The reality is, people like Donald Trump. He has a bullish attitude that resonates with large numbers of the populace, and the fact that his campaign is, according to him, self funded, separates him from mainstream Washingtonian politics.

In the event he doesn’t win the nomination, Trump could well follow the path taken by Ross Perrot in 1992 and 1996 elections and run as an independent candidate, which he announced he may do. For the Republican nomination for president, this would be an uncomfortable situation to say the least. When Perrot ran in 1992, he won almost 19% of the popular vote, which came from almost 20 million people. Had George Bush Snr. won those votes instead, he would have crushed Bill Clinton in a landslide victory. The same could befall any would be Republican seeking the highest office. If the polls are anything to go by, and Trump doesn’t win the nomination, then the most likely man to run will be either Jeb Bush, or Wisconsin governor Scott Walker.

Mr Bush, however, seems the most likely of the two. In terms of raw spending power, he outclasses all the candidates including Mrs Clinton. Raising almost double the amount of money she has, and close to fourfold of Mr Walker’s total funds. He is also uniquely poised to eat into a core Democratic demographic. Latinos. He can speak Spanish, and along with Marco Rubio is the only candidate able to do so. This might seem to be a minor factor, but in order to be elected to the presidency, the Republicans have to attract more Latinos, and that means understanding them and trying to relate to them. This is ever more prescient when their population is increasing at a steady pace, with 100s of thousands reaching voting age every year, and millions per election cycle.

A second problem that Mr Bush may have to contend with is that he is the brother of former president George W. Bush. The former president has actually admitted that the association with his sibling could hurt the latter’s chances, and the legacy of the Bush Administration is still a bitter point of contention for many. The two, immensely costly wars in the Middle East were a direct fulfilment of a foreign policy directed primarily against al-Qaeda, and the destabilisation of Iraq as a consequence of the invasion in 2003 may well have fuelled the rise of ISIS. Clearly, Mr Bush will not want to be linked to this at all, and whilst he did not have a hand in the debacle that was Iraq and Afghanistan, guilt by association could be a poison pill for his campaign. Hopefully, he will be able to distance himself from this particular aspect of the premiership of his brother, although his opponents at the debates could well bring the subject up as a means to undermine his support, and facilitate their own.

Whatever happens though, with 16 candidates to whittle down to one, the next few months will not be uneventful by any measure. The Republicans are sure to provide months of entertainment.