Impending Water Crisis In The Gulf?

Economic development, rapidly increasing populations and global warming are making the supply of fresh water one of the greatest challenges facing the states of the Arabian Gulf.

The countries of the Arabian Gulf are famed for the wealth of their oil and gas reserves. Perhaps less well known, however, is their poverty when it comes to another natural resource; water. According to the UN Water Scarcity Index, all countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council with the exception of Oman, lie ominously in the “acute scarcity” category. Global warming, water intensive agricultural programmes and an increasing domestic demand have exacerbated water shortage problems. Expensive short term solutions funded by oil and gas revenue are becoming increasingly unsustainable.

Access to water has serious implications for inter-state relations in the Middle East and a water crisis would carry a significant risk of destabilising the region. In 1985 Boutros Boutros-Ghali warned that “The next war in the Middle East will be fought over water, not politics.”

Land of Deserts

Arabian Gulf countries are amongst the most arid in the world. Total rainfall in the region lies in the range of 70mm to 130mm per year, resulting in widespread desertification and an almost complete absence of rivers and lakes. Saudi Arabia, for example, does not have a single natural perennial river. Some gulf states do have limited stores of natural water lying below ground, but these resources are being depleted with extraction far outstripping the rate of natural replacement.

Global warming has further reduced already low rainfall levels in the Arabian Peninsula. A 2009 study into the effect of climate change on rainfall in Saudi Arabia found that:

Wet and Dry Season Rainfall in Saudi Arabia Longitudinal Trend 1979-2009 [Source: Urban Times]

Extremely low rainfall renders land in the Arabian Peninsula largely  infertile and unsuited to supporting the crops needed to feed the region’s population. The GCC has traditionally followed a policy of self sufficiency in food production, meaning major irrigation programmes are required to sustain agriculture. Although accounting for between 80-90% of fresh water use, agriculture contributes an average of just 2.3% to regional GDP.

Domestic Demand

Economic development and rapidly increasing populations (according to the UN Water Report, the GCC is expected to expand its populace over five-fold between 2005 and 2050) have resulted in a spiraling demand for water. The bill for providing their populations with a more than adequate water supply has been footed almost entirely by the region’s governments rather than the citizen. In Saudi Arabia citizens contribute a meagre 1% of what it costs the state to provide water. Treatment of saline water has featured heavily in government policy, with desalinisation programmes for individual households leading to the highest per capita water consumption in the world. The average UAE resident, for example, uses 550 litres of water per day, more than double the world average of 250 litres per day. This is a remarkable fact considering the scarcity of water in the region.

Saudi Arabia continues to invest heavily in water purification programmes on the Gulf coast, currently building the world’s largest desalination plant in Ras al-Khair. The GCC, however, is increasingly concerned about the prospect of leaks from coastal energy installations and oil rigs rendering waters of the Gulf undrinkable. The Iranian nuclear plant in the earthquake prone Bushehr region has been a particularly worry for Gulf states, who have been seeking assurances from Iran of its safety.

Towards a More Sustainable Model

The Gulf states must move beyond a model based on using revenue from energy exports to finance short term solutions and instead adopt a broad long term collective strategy for addressing water security. Greater investment in science and technology could potentially establish the Gulf as a pioneering region in sustainable water technology.

The GCC has been responding to the need for greater collective action in tackling water shortage, and in July announced a $7 billion project to construct a joint water supply system that takes seawater from outside the Gulf and distributes drinkable water across member states. The rate of population growth and economic development in the Gulf, however, mean that desalinisation capacity will need to increase by 90% before 2019 in order to meet demand. As well as moving away from the Gulf Sea as a water source, the GCC states must also look to break their dependence on desalinisation and increase domestic water reserves. Both Kuwait and Abu Dhabi have announced plans to construct artificial underground artificial water reservoirs to be used in case of emergency.

The need to reduce the massive amounts of water currently being used for agriculture is also becoming apparent to the GCC, with Saudi Arabia deciding to terminate its policy of self sufficient wheat production by 2016. Altering domestic consumption trends may prove more challenging given the expectancy of unlimited free water being provided by the state. Greater environmental awareness programs and emphasis on conservation may be necessary to change attitudes and behaviour.

Recent trends demonstrate a willingness of Gulf states to cooperate rather than pursue individual policy solutions to the problem of water scarcity. A failure to effectively address water security would have major implications both for the environment and for political stability in the Gulf.

This article was originally published on Urban Times.