The world holds its breath: protesters rally on the streets of New York ahead of Tuesday’s United Nations’ Climate Change Summit, 2014.
The milestone Summit is to bring together 125 world leaders, with representatives of the major G20 nations to state their views towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions and tackling climate change. Meanwhile, the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the earth’s atmosphere has reached 396 ppm and continues to rise.
No-show from India and China leaders
Representing the nation of the second-highest greenhouse gas emissions globally is US President Barack Obama, set to outline his proposals for a low carbon future. However, the heads of state of major emerging economics, China and India, will not be attending the Summit, which may dampen some of the hopes of the international community.
People’s Climate March. Image Credit: National Geographic
In attendance on behalf of China will be Zhang Gaoli, the Vice Premier, while India’s voice will be represented by the country’s Environmental Minister, Prakash Javadekar. The importance of these two countries’ attendance at the Summit cannot be understated. China and India represent the major manufacturing and service sectors of the global economy, respectively. It is also widely accepted that these two nations believe in the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) where developed nations are expected to carry most of the burden in cutting back emissions, given the liberty they have long benefited from of developing without environmental constraints.
The speeches made by these two countries will be eagerly anticipated by the international community and will likely set the precedent as to whether the Paris Climate Change Conference of 2015, where a legal agreement on climate change is to be approved, will conclude with a favourable outcome.
Hundreds of thousands rally in street protests
UN support for action on climate change is most notable and boasts well-known public figures among its supporters, including US ex-Vice President Al Gore, and UN Messenger of Peace, Jane Goodall. This was evident from their joining UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in the People’s Climate March held on Sunday. The Secretary-General went on to state that the Summit forms a key step as we move towards the formulation of a post-Kyoto agreement in the 21st Conference of Parties (COP) talks to be held in Paris next year.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon. Image Credit: United Nations
This September marks only the second occasion in 20 years where the governments and heads of state will gather outside the Conference of Parties (COPs) talks, the first being in Copenhagen in 2009.
Though there will be no formalised voting on a climate deal in New York, the Summit offers leaders an opportunity to voice their concerns and proposals for new climate deals. This is of particular significance noting the past failings in Copenhagen in 2009.
The likelihood of staying within a 2°C change in global temperature, as laid out in the aims of the DDDDD, will depend critically on positive outcomes in New York, Lima in December and, most importantly, Paris in 2015.
Lacking government participation
The truth, from a climate change policy perspective, is that the seriousness and participation of governments in action on climate change has seriously been lacking. Despite the best efforts by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to implement, through the Kyoto Protocol, cost-reducing flexibility mechanisms, voluntary options such as REDD initially and REDD+ currently; very little progress has been made in emission reductions. Ultimately, the formulation of a legally-binding agreement will depend on political will.
On Sunday, hundreds of thousands of people will gather with distinguished international climate activists such as Dr. Kumi Naidoo, the Executive Director of Greenpeace International, Head of Climate Reality Leadership, Al Gore and the newly-appointed UN Messenger for Peace, Actor Leonardo DiCaprio. A demonstration of this magnitude will hopefully display a united front against global climate change right before not only world leaders and members of the UN but also representatives from the finance and business worlds, and mayors.
Investment in renewable energy
Besides civil society action such as this, the interplay between government and the oil and gas companies, and the movement towards economies based on low-carbon power sources will be a critical debate. Mass investment in renewable energy and clean technologies, particularly by the G8 and strong emerging economies, could potentially determine whether or not countries meet their emission reduction targets.
A Summit of this nature serves to show that there is recognition by leaders that climate change is a threat to humanity, and that there needs to be urgent action to combat it.
Nonetheless, the success of the Summit hinges on three major factors: rapidly-developing “BRICS” economies showing positive commitment to climate change; serious US statements regarding entering a global climate agreement, and whether fossil fuel energy companies can reconcile with governments to find a way to de-carbonize the economy while not stagnating economic growth. If these are not met, then this will yet be another conference where simply verbal emissions are produced.
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