On July 14th, An agreement was finalised by The United States, Great Britain, Germany, Russia, France, China, and Iran, on the latter’s nuclear programme, summarised neatly as follows:
“The full implementation of this JCPOA will ensure the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme” and “Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons”.
After six and half years in office, the Obama administration has scored what is frankly an excellent achievement in a foreign policy that has made little ground in regards to Middle East affairs. With hard power being the administration’s modus operandi when executing its regional agenda; be it air strikes in Iraq and Syria to combat ISIS, or the use of UAVs in Pakistan to target the Taliban, an agreement forged by dialogue and negotiation makes a refreshing change. Furthermore, the fact that such an accord has been reached at all is impressive in itself. A mere three years ago, the possibility of war with Iran was not in the realm of fantasy.
Indeed, when one considers what the consequences of this would be, this achievement is extraordinary. A third Middle East conflict with a large scale deployment of US forces would be disastrous, in both manpower and financially. Recent estimates put the cost of both engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan at around $6 trillion. The number of American lives lost in the two wars numbers in the thousands. Therefore, by avoiding the use of force to prevent Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, thousands more lives, and billions more dollars will be spared. In addition, a peaceful solution lowers the risk of yet more destabilization in a region already fractured at least in part by previous intervention. A fresh batch of violent and fanatical enemies who might emerge in the aftermath is something the US would be keen to avoid. The same could be said for the other negotiators, for this was not a deal struck by the US alone.
The other four permanent members on the UN Security Council, plus Germany, have likewise put significant effort into ensuring that Iran could not get a nuclear weapon. This in itself is no mean feat either. China, Russia, and the United States especially are not usually known for seeing eye to eye when it comes to international affairs and when the stakes are so high, regularly using their power of veto to neuter resolutions that are not amenable to their interests. Just last year, China and Russia vetoed a resolution that would have referred Syria to the ICC. By the same token, the US in 2011 used its power of veto regarding a resolution over the ‘Palestinian Question’.
That such division can split these nations makes this agreement deeply significant. Not only does it show that even with US and Russia enduring notoriously poor relations, the two can work together, but that the US can in general achieve its foreign policy goals without having to always follow the domineering approach that it has employed in the past. Another added bonus is that this accord might herald a thaw in the mutual enmity between the two powers. Thirdly, and just as important, it shows that Iran can be reasoned with. A country crippled by punitive UN sanctions, and an avowed enemy of the US since the fall of the Shah in 1979. If peaceful means can bring mortal foes to the bargaining table, then it could well be applied to other scenarios in future.
Unfortunately, however, there are a few drawbacks. Perhaps the most notable is that its approval in congress appears an insurmountable task for President Obama to achieve. After all, his party’s legislative agenda has been severely impaired following its loss of The Senate last year. With no majority in either chamber in congress, the republicans need only to persuade a handful of democrats to oppose the deal, and months of negotiations could be rendered meaningless.
A second problem comes in the form of Iran itself. Whilst a deal has been struck, the fact remains that in all other areas, Iran still takes the traditional hardline approach that the US is an enemy. In a speech on the 18th of July, the supreme Ayatollah stated Iran would never cease to oppose the US. However the nuclear deal was not itself attacked. A general attitude that makes it abundantly clear that any other significant rapprochement between the two is a long way off.
Despite these limitations, the deal should be seen as a case study in how international cooperation can indeed bear fruit, and how enemies, and rivals, despite their immense differences, can agree on matters of international importance.
About the Author
