The third installment of the World Baseball Classic (WBC) began this weekend in five cities around the world. The tournament was established in 2006 as a response to the Olympic Committee vote in 2005 removing baseball from the Olympics following the 2008 Beijing Games.
Japan will be looking to win baseball’s biggest international tournament for a third consecutive time, defending their championships from the inaugural tournament in 2006 and again in 2009 where they beat Cuba and South Korea respectively (since 2009, the WBC has turned to the quadrennial format of the Olympics & FIFA World Cup). The 16-team tournament consists of four groups of four teams, with the top two from each group advancing to a double-elimination bracket. Group stages are held in five cities in Asia and North America. The second round will be held in Tokyo and Miami, while the semifinals and final- March 19- will be played at San Francisco’s AT&T Park.
For those who don’t follow baseball, or are unfamiliar with the WBC, it may come as a surprise that the United States has not been dominate in what many consider to be “their” game. In fact, the USA’s best finish was in 2009 when they finished fourth, losing to Venezuela in the third place game; they failed to make it to the semifinals in 2006. This is in part due to the lack of participation by some of the best American players. Fans hoping for an easy American victory were disappointed when superstars such as Rookie of the Year Mike Trout and National League Most Valuable Player Buster Posey chose not to participate. Playing in the WBC is entirely voluntary leaving teams such as the United States to field their second-best players at each position, while the stars choose not to risk injury and continue to prepare for the upcoming MLB season. With that said, any manager would be more than happy to field an outfield of Adam Jones, Giancarlo Stanton, and former MVP Ryan Braun.
Anyone from outside the US could tell you how important national identity is to the people and how success from the national team brings a country together. Under the current format, this is the opportunity for many Asian and Latino nations to prove to the world they are the best at what, in the 21st-century, is indeed a global game. These teams also have the fan support necessary to win. The fans follow the teams too, with the attendance of the 2009 final in Los Angeles between Japan and South Korea nearing 55,000. For these nations, the international scene is a point of pride, unlike the United States where the team’s reach has exceeded its grasp.
Aside from player participation, this raises another issue – the lack of fan participation in the United States. Many American baseball fans assume they are the best at baseball and take for granted the fact that the US might not be fielding the best team in the world. When the team does not live up to expectations these fans tend to dismiss the tournament, citing that the best the US had to offer was not on the roster. The team is not held accountable.
This is where the WBC falls short. In order to become everything the tournament was intended to be, the very best from each nation must be on the rosters.
The heads of Major League Baseball and the WBC could come down with a dictatorial ruling making participation mandatory, but the best solution is to move the tournament to November. Much like the FIFA World Cup is held after the conclusion of all domestic seasons; the WBC would do itself a favor to follow up the MLB World Series and Nippon League Japan Series. Players would be willing to participate without the risk of missing part of the upcoming season and they would be in baseball shape, coming directly out of the professional season. Only then would the WBC achieve its full potential and become a true World Series.
Predictions (Note: Picks were made prior to competition)
Groups Stages (March 2-10):
For now however, the tournament has commenced under its current format and that means predictions are in order.
There are no surprises in Group A as Cuba won the group finishing 3-0, and Japan made it through as the runner-up with a record of 2-1. Japan will now play the winner of Group B- Chinese Taipei (2-1) – and Cuba will play the Netherlands (2-1, loss to Taiwan) as the runner-up in Group B. I am surprised at Taiwan’s performance and that South Korea, silver medalists in the 2009 tournament, did not make it through. The Dutch, however, have some strong talent, such as Andrelton Simmons and Roger Bernadina, from their Caribbean territories- Netherlands Antilles and Curacao most notably. I expect them to exceed expectations in this tournament.
The United States should win Group D, though not without a fight, as I expect Mexico to finish second and Canada to potentially upset either of these teams.
Group C of this year’s WBC is comparable to the so-called groups of death in football tournaments. Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico all have a sincere shot at the championship and are fielding the very best of what their nations have to offer. Ultimately, I foresee the hosts, Puerto Rico, just missing out as Venezuela wins the group and the Dominican Republic finish second. Aside from the United States, the Dominican Republic is the only nation in the tournament with all of their players in one level or another of Major League Baseball. Venezuela has current American League Most Valuable Player and Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera and Felix Hernandez, winner of the 2010 American League Cy Young Award given the league’s best pitcher.
In the Tokyo second round, Cuba, the Netherlands, Japan, and Chinese Taipei will be battling for a spot in the semifinals in San Francisco.
Felix Hernandez. Image: Wikimedia Commons
I see Japan making it through along with the Netherlands, who will knock out Cuba in the upset of the tournament. The magic will run out there however, as Japan will win and make it to their third straight WBC final.
In the Miami second round, Mexico, the United States, Venezuela, and the Dominican Republic will battle for their semifinal positions. Venezuela should make it through easily. The other is a difficult pick, but I’m going to be a homer and pick the United States. To do this the US will have to beat the Dominican Republic in what I expect to be the best game of the WBC. Venezuela, however, will beat the US in the semis to play in their first WBC final.
In the final Venezuela will beat Japan; the third place match will be the United States over the Netherlands. Japan is a fantastic team that plays the most fundamentally sound baseball in the world, but the combination of power, speed, defense, and pitching will win this tournament for Venezuela. I truly expect Venezuela to win the tournament in a fashion befitting the Spanish football team – that is to say, I expect them to dominate and not leave anyone questioning who is the best in the world. Play ball!
